· By Tam McDonald
Too much focus on the gizmos distracts from the simple truth that the market for Virtual Reality lies in the market, not in the technology
Every time there’s a big new thing in the world of consumer technology, the initial breathlessness is invariably followed by a long sigh of disillusion before a more sensible middle ground is achieved. Some shiny new toys may lose the shine to some extent but become well established in the consumer mind anyway – often for reasons that are some way from their initial conceptions. Desktop publishing and digital printing, artificial intelligence, and the “worldwide web” promised to redefine “the way we live now” as we moved into the 21st century. Then came the long shrug of mehhh, and now we see the promise rekindled beyond the dreams of a generation ago.
Either side of this middle ground are the initially hyped devices that die a death and (so far) have stayed dead – Google Glass and 3D movies come to mind; and at the other end the devices that start out popular and just get better – mobile phones, for example, and personal computers (this last maybe turbo-charged particularly when Steve Jobs got hold of them).
In none of these examples is the innovative cleverness in any new technology sufficient to overcome negative or even absent market sentiment. Where people cannot see the value, or even the point, beyond the sheer novelty of the gizmo, the inventor usually collides with the implacable rules of the market: change yourself or change the product, but don’t think you are going to change the market.
Usually. Usually, the inventors can collect their pensions before the market changes to oblige them.
It does happen, however. No better an example exists in today’s market, with the endgame now playing out on the worst pandemic of the past century, than with the technologies associated with Virtual and Augmented Reality. These have been around for a while, with small armies of funsters groping their way through forests of threats and wonders in their headsets and prosthetic gloves. Yet before the pandemic, there were more industry commentators ready to see this particular industry going the way of Google Glass than were anointing Virtual Reality as the Big New Thing.
So what has changed? This: the pandemic is threatening several long-established industries associated with tourism – primarily those engaged in long-haul, global travel. Airline and cruise companies are lining up for compensation relief as if there were a Normal Life to which they could return with the alacrity of any other businesses for which life and commerce have been put on temporary hold. They will come back to an extent, but their Good Old Days are gone.
What Virtual Reality is offering, with technology that is well advanced since the early days of Oculus headsets, is a rapidly improving quality of experience. What are key are significant compensations for not actually being in a place: no travel hassle and less danger, diminished environmental impact, and the allure of travelling not only across landscapes, but across time.